Volcanologist Haraldur Sigurðsson predicted in October last year that the eruption in Holuhraun would end on March 4 and it appears his prediction may not be too far off the mark, visir.is reports.
There has been a significant reduction in the eruption in the last few days and it appears that the lava lake, which was being continuously filled with new lava, is closing.
Helicopter pilot Reynir Freyr Pétursson of Reykjavík Helicopters flew over the eruption on Tuesday. A video by Reynir comparing the eruption on December 5, 12, January 31 and February 17, shows that the lava flow has reduced substantially.
As reported, Haraldur predicted that judging by the development of the caldera subsidence in Bárðarbunga volcano, which lies under Vatnajökull glacier, the eruption in Holuhraun, which is fed with magma from Bárðarbunga volcano, will end on March 4.
Haraldur explained in October that the subsidence is linear but not a curve, which indicates that the sinking of the caldera will gradually slow down.
Based on this data, Haraldur’s grandson Gabriel Sölvi came up with a formula predicting that the eruption in Holuhraun will end 173 days after September 12.
The prerequisite for the prediction is that the magma flow in the intrusive dike connecting Bárðarbunga and Holuhraun, which lies at a depth of 8 km (4 miles), has reduced the pressure and caused the caldera subsidence.
With time, Haraldur explained, the pressure will reduce further and the subsidence slow down, also reducing the eruption activity in Holuhraun, which eventually will stop.