Eruption: Three Scenarios Most Likely


Eruption: Three Scenarios Most Likely

Holuhraun eruption

The new craters this morning. Photo: Hörður Finnbogason

Specialists at the Icelandic Met office and the University of Iceland this afternoon met to discuss the short lived eruption and what might possibly follow. At this moment it is unclear how the situation will develop.

However, three scenarios are considered most likely:

* The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.

* The dike could reach the Earth's surface north of Dyngjujökull causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Such an eruption could include lava flow and (or) explosive activity.

* The intrusion reaches the surface and an eruption occurs again where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.

At 10:00 UTC, IMO changed the Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga to ‘orange,' signifying that significant emission of ash into the atmosphere is unlikely. The aviation colour-code for the Askja volcano remains at ‘yellow'. Other scenarios cannot be excluded, for example, an eruption inside the Bárdarbunga caldera.


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