A new poll conducted for Morgunblaðið and published today, on the eve of Iceland’s parliamentary election, shows the Independence Party gaining 1.4 percent support since he last such poll, conducted October 14-19. At that time, the Pirate Party measured the largest among Icelandic political parties, but this latest poll shows the Independence Party receiving 22.5 percent support (which would give the party 16 representatives in parliament) and the Pirate Party getting 21 percent, or 14 MPs (down from 22.6 percent in the last poll).
The Left-Green Movement receives almost 17 percent of the vote in the poll, or 11 MPs (compared with 18.6 in the last poll). The Reform Party enjoys 11 percent support (up from 8.8 percent in the last poll) and the Progressive Party 10 percent (up from 9.1 percent), giving them seven MPs each. Bright Future and The Social Democratic Alliance receive close to 7 and 6 percent, respectively, which means four MPs for each party. Other parties do not get sufficient support to be represented in parliament, but for that, 5 percent of votes is needed.
According to the poll, the combined support for the four opposition parties, which have been engaged in negotiations regarding the possibility of forming a government, is down by the equivalent of three MPs from the last poll conducted for Morgunblaðið. Their combined support in this poll would entitle them to 33 MPs, which would suffice to form a coalition government.
The poll was conducted by the Social Science Research Institute of the University of Iceland, both by phone and online. The sample size was 4,000. The response rate was 61 percent, or 2,428, about 83 percent of whom named a party they would vote for.